09-14-2021, 11:40 AM
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#9
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MJC922
The rule of thumb is win price of the winner multiplied by place price of the runner up. So for example looking at Woodbine today race 4, winner paid $5.20 and the place horse $7.20, multiply those and you get $37.40 for the exacta and it paid $36.10.
More rules of thumb, the place price is ballpark 40% of win odds to the $1.
If you're looking at an 8/5 horse should pay $5.20 in the win slot. Place horse was 10-1, 40% of that is $10 to place, it only paid $7.20 however it ran second to the favorite so that would have to be part of the place estimate.
In other words 40% of 10-1 is an overall ballpark number, it doesn't accurately estimate the likely place payoff when paired with the favorite, which you would need to do if you want to pinpoint place payoffs. I've never dug into it more deeply but you might be able to use that as a starting point anyway.
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my calculations
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