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[PhantomOnTour]

Excited for the premier race at my home track, Fair Grounds. Excellent card on offer with plenty of Stakes races, including three Grade 2 races.

This will be the 5th time that the LaDerby will be run at the 9.5f distance. Three of the previous four were won wire to wire in pretty much dominating fashion (Wells Bayou, Hot Rod Charlie, Kingsbarns). The other was won by Epicenter, who stayed close to the pace before taking over after about 6f.
Unless #3 Antiquarian(or another runner) is sent early to challenge #12Track Phantom, we may see another front end waltz. I get the feeling Pletcher will do just that with Antiquarian in order to aide the late rally of #4 Agate Road, who looks the better of his two runners.

Back to Track Phantom, who has been solid all meet long at FG, but I wonder if they catch up to him on Saturday. He basically runs the same race and the same figure every time. Last four Beyers are 89-90-89-88...he's not getting any better, which is what you look for from 3yr olds, esp ones who are being pointed to the Kentucky Derby. He's also been in steady training since his debut on Oct 1st.
A few others in the field are improving, and I project them to run a number that can beat the expected favorite.

#5 Catching Freedom - a half to Bishops Bay, has paired up 87 Beyers in his first two starts this year, which could set the stage for a nice move forward on Saturday. Prat takes the mount and he looks like a solid win candidate. I would be all in on this colt if it weren't for his antics in the stretch. He has trouble changing leads and was really playing around in his win two back at OP.

#10 Common Defense - to be fair, he got an absolute dream trip in the Rebel Stks last out at OP, but he was on the bridle all the way & looked loaded turning for home. Couldn't stay with arguably the top 3yr old right now in Timberlake, but put distance on the rest of the field, and galloped out strongly, heading the winner around the clubhouse turn. Drawn wide today but has plenty of room to find a spot before they hit the turn.

Maybe #2 Hall Of Fame can rebound off his Risen Star Stks run (without lasix), but I'm against him.
#4 Agate Road will be coming late with Irad in the saddle and can be used, but he will have a lot of work to do. Will be interesting to see where Irad places him early.
#7 Honor Marie must be given a chance. He did get a dream set up in November at CD and took full advantage of it. Surely needed his last when he lagged far behind early, but was going nicely late & galloped out well.

The rest of the field doesn't excite me much. I will add that #1 Triple Espresso will scratch and run at Turfway instead.

Great card, can't wait
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