Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I understand how incorporating the crowd's odds into your model helps you create a more accurate odds line, but I don't understand how it helps you win.
If I make a horse 2-1 and the crowd makes him 9-1, let's say the using both makes his new line 5-1. I'm still going to bet him at 9-1.
If I make a horse 2-1 and the crowd makes him 4-1, let's say the using both makes his new line 3-1. I'm still going to bet him at 4-1.
About the only time it might change your bet is if I make a horse 2-1 and the crowd makes him 3-1. Let's say the using both makes him 5/2. I might not bet him at 5/2 because there's not enough margin of safety.
Someone explained it to me one time and it made a little sense, but I can't remember what the thinking was.
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I don’t pretend to have the answer either. My guess is it also varies on the horse. A horse that hasn’t raced in 6 months or a first time starter or even a horse in a new barn is probably a lot more tote board dependent then a hoerse that has been racing regularly on todays surface.
Just looking at it from a logic standpoint, these teams use rebates to earn. They bet large amounts of money and huge errors can be devastating to their bankroll/profit loss. In a simple sense a horse that I make 2-1 that is going off at 10-1 is not going to win 33 percent of the time long run (I should say the group of horses that I make 2-1 going off at 10-1). So any adjustment above 2-1 makes my line more accurate. I am sure that these teams have many thousands of races in their database to help them learn and earn.
An interesting aside. In the bet with the best podcast with Barry meadow he actually shared some interesting information. I think he retired in 2011. But he explained that he played horses that were 50 percent or higher above his line at up to 6-1 on his line. Over his entire career I believe he said that he netted 1 percent pre rebate in the win pool. That is what I heard so if that is incorrect someone can correct me as I only listened once.This is a guy that knew every horse on the southern and Northern California circuit like they were his kids and watched every replay thoroughly. Much of this betting took place when caw wasn’t around and then later not nearly as significant as they are today. For Joe fan to bet the races sans rebate and have any chance of winning in today’s game is a complete pipe dream. Whether fixed odds betting can change this fact remains to be seen. I am highly skeptical. I stand by my zillion previous posts that rebates need to be eliminated and takeout corrected. Of course the racing industry is going to be all in on this fixed odds wagering because it enables them to stick with their beloved status quo. When it fails, oh well.
