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Old 02-13-2018, 06:19 PM   #224
ultracapper
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Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter View Post
I am talking about normal, small scale gamblers. Guys that start with a $10,000 Poker Bankrolll and sports betting bankroll and try and grow a roll. Let me refresh your memory in case you miss Ian's post.

As posted by Ian:

3. CAW teams sink millions of dollars into developing their models and will labor for YEARS spending money collecting and analyzing data before they make even one bet. I’m not going to call out anyone specifically but there are guys on this board and others like it (including Twitter) that bitch if they have to pay for PPs and you believe that you’re going to be on a level playing field with guys that spend $50,000+ a year on back data? Last year alone I made $75,000 of data purchases on behalf of U.S. & International CAW clients.

4. I’m not trying to sound harsh; the guys that make up CAW teams are a lot smarter than you are. They’re a lot smarter than I am too and I’m a well-educated guy. These guys are rocket scientists, literally. One guy I know on a start-up team I’m working with has a dual PHD in Nuclear Physics and Aeronautical Engineering. Don’t you think that is some kind of advantage when you’re working with numerical data? Dave Schwartz is a brilliant guy, smarter than I am and has worked with teams in the past. I know he can attest to how hard this is.



This job opportunity is not exactly open to everyone. Huge startup costs, huge educational requirements and technical knowledge. These are teams of
very smart people and then you have to have a huge betting bankroll on top of that.

I am not saying that guys like Ultracapper cannot raise themsleves to be huge profit makers in this game. Of course they can. I believe poster Bacornswitchfarm did so himself. Of course it can be done. But when other
winning gamblers (poker players, dfs players, sports bettors,....) look at this game and look at the other games, most of them are choosing the other games and are doing so for a very good reason. Also even though a few can rise up in todays game, for the masses it is going to be the same old song year after year, -20 to -30% before breakage. When they can lose a fraction of that playing other games, I wonder where there gambling dollar ends up?

How do you play alongside these teams and win? Do I call Ian and say I want to become an investor or would like a daily ridealong. Maybe they will program my laptop to make 1000 bets in a 1/4 of a second? Moreover if they are getting 18% rebates and I am getting a 7% rebate in a trifecta, they win and I lose. I don't want to follow them anyways, I want to bet against them. But I can't even do that in today's game because I don't who the heck they bet until the far turn.

I get it, your mantra is adapt or die. That Mantra would apply just as well if they eliminated rebates and lowered takeout to the propler levels. But in todays game too many are dying and too few adapting and the result is the game will not sustain long term. In the game I propose that would not be the case. That is the difference.
Take the RED out of this sentence, and I don't shy away from this statement at all. I started playing in 1982. My first profitable year was 2008. I've had 3 losing years since.

I fell into the niche I occupy as a player, and the more I learn about the betting environment, the more I understand why I am where I am now. Also, reading CJ's comments about his action, I understand his frustration.

I did a number of payoff studies in the early 2000's in SoCal, and found a subset of conditions that not only paid higher average win returns, but a higher mean, so I dedicated my game to those conditions. They just happen to be the conditions that would seem to me, by what I've learned about the bot-teams, the conditions that their feeding system would have the least effect, whereas I believe CJ is playing in an environment where he is dramatically effected by the bot-team's action. CJ plays Stakes, allowances and MSW that he feels have promising impact on future stake races. He bets the better maidens, for a lack of a better way to put it. These are all high-handle races, and provide these bot-teams their best opportunity to effect the tote in almost every pool. It would seem to me that the very best feeding ground for these teams would be the higher handle races.

I did my price studies when, it seems to me, the CRW infiltration of the pools was really gaining ground and becoming more prominent, meet to meet. It really was a perfect storm for me to ride, and purely luck on my part. Entirely lucky as the timing would have it. I play the lower handle races at the higher handle tracks, and I think the success that followed can be attributed to that subset of conditions I fell into. I know they are in the pools I'm playing. But I'm only in the win and place pool, and on very long shots, I will venture into the show pool. Castaway noted earlier in this thread that a lot of the bot-teams "suckage" is carried out in the exotic pools, pools I haven't really had any serious involvement in for a decade. In the races I handicap, I would say the favorites are underlaid close to 75% of time, and the second choice, easily more than 50% of the time. The half of the field that is the longer shots, are usually overlaid, sometimes as much as 25%. They hammer these "cheaper" races, where the discrepancy between the top 2 or 3 horses and the bottom 3 or 4 horses is very pronounced, and they overplay the shorter horses. Since 2008, the average winning pay in my subset of races has risen close to 10%, while the mean has pretty much stayed put. From what I'm understanding, it would seem to me it's the bot-teams that are causing this effect. I don't see any other reason. Their models just don't seem to weigh accurately the bottom half of these fields, and I think it's because the top half looks so strong in comparison in many cases.

The beauty of this sport, not the gambling, I mean the sport, horse racing, is in watching the top athletes compete, so it's very understandable why CJ and others like him, concentrate on those particular conditions. But they are the marquis races and conditions at every track, and attract the most action and highest handle, which is the best feeding ground for these bot operations, IMHO. It sucks that this is the case, but these teams are just looking at the $s, and those are the races and pools they must design their models on because that is where the big bucks are.
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