Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I went down the road of looking at two or more sets of figures a very long time ago. At one time I had Beyer figures, CJ figures, Logic Dictate figures, reviewed major stakes days on my own, and occasionally had Thoroghgraph or Ragozin figures. I also spent the time required to understand the methodology differences that accounted for some of he differences.
There are some obvious upsides when figures agree. The problem is that when all the major figure makers agree, the prices reflect that. So I quickly switched to trying to figure out which figure maker had it right or wrong when they disagreed. I started looking closely at the field, the day in question, how horses were coming out of the race, was there a potential methodology flaw at work etc..
That helps sometimes, but most of the time it's really tough to be sure who has it right even after the fact. After years of practice, I found that looking at multiple figures can be just as paralyzing and time consuming as it was helpful.
I would say that now I just accept that whatever set I am looking at will have some errors. I'm more concerned with their overall performance and ROI hoping to at least be in more fertile grounds than an alternative.
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I have looked at many different figures over time. I think the most important thing when looking at figures is to have confidence in the figures you are using.
Then analyze, if it was a bias or a trip enhanced figure and go from there. If you believe the figure,then analyze the race and you are getting a fair price, then you have a bet.Generally,IMO,I think you are better off with figures that are not publicly published, because less players have access to them. In many cases due to circumstances, the figure makers are just making an educated guess as to what the figure should be. I have seen many figure makers change their numbers after subsequent races have been run. The most important thing to remember about figures is that they are just another tool for you to work with.
