PA,
Have you considered making a bet on a low-priced horse as well, even if that horse is a
slightly losing proposition?
In the early '60s, Alan Wilson wrote a book called
The Casino Gambler's Guide.
In that book he cited an example of adding a losing proposition to a winning proposition to raise the optimum bet.
Specifically, he said suppose you had a horse that was 20/1 in every race that won 10% of the time.
(BTW, I seem to recall in the book, he said that 20/1 was a $40 payoff, which threw all of his calcs off a bit but the point was clear.)
But let's stick with 20/1 paying $42.
So, you make 10 bets, betting $2 each time and win once, returning $42.
Code:
$42.00 return
-20.00 bet
--------
+22.00 profit
22/20 = 110% advantage
opt bet% = advantage / odds
OptBet%= 110%/20 = 5.5% of bankroll.
Wilson then introduces the idea that you also have a 2/1 horse in each race that wins 30% of the time.
By combining the two bets in each race you wind up with:
Code:
$42.00 return from 1 winner at $42.00
+18.00 return from 3 winners at $6.00 each
---------
$60.00 total return
-40.00 total bet on both horses
---------
+20.00 profit
20/40 = 50% advantage
$60.00 return divided by 4 wins =
average Odds= $15 / $4 = 3.75 - 1 = 2.75/1
OptBet% = 50% / 2.75 = 18.18% of Bankroll
The point being that even though you've given up half your profit, now, after 10 races, you are winning 4 times instead of just once.
This increased consistency allows you to bet over 3x more money!
Now, the really interesting thing is that, in theory, the low odds horses you bet do not have to be in the same races as the prime bets.
This means that you do not have to bet an equal number of losing bets!
Thus, if you're hitting 10% of your bets and want to increase the hit rate a little, you could
occasionally add a low-odds horse.
Just a thought.
Dave
