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I grew up close enough to Saratoga that it was impossible to avoid the racing talk in August. In that month usually the answer to the question, "Where's so-and-so," was, "at the track."
I was a fan of Ray Taulbot pretty much from the first time I read American Turf Month (Ultimately I became a regular contributor to that magazine). I was a hard worker when it came to looking at the winners of previous races. I tried a couple of things on my own, mainly related to weighing individual factors, sort of like regressions. I'd also follow certain trainers who didn't have big stables but seemed live when they had a horse in.
My racing life took a huge turn when I uncovered something that we ultimately called The Condition Sign. Fort Erie, Canada was where I went as soon as classes were over for the day. Just a quick trip from Buffalo, where I was going to school. across the Peace Bridge and there it was. One day I was looking at a horse named Hoosier Rob. Really good looking chestnut. His first 4 or 5 starts I don't think he beat a horse. Close to last from gate to wire. In his two most recent starts he did something different. In his penultimate start he had the lead at the quarter call before dropping back. In his last race he held his speed before fading in the stretch. The horses came out and he really looked great. His odds on the board were 80-1.
It would have been a cool ending if he won, but he got caught near the sixteenth pole. Anyway, I had six bucks across on him (I haven't bet to show in 40 years, but across the board was popular at that time). I think I collected about $75, and had a new method to perfect. I made a lot of money using The Condition Sign and eventually wrote a book about it (1988 or so).
It's become harder and harder to find big long shots that have a good chance to win, primarily because the statistical information now available in the DRF, Timeform, etc. became far more available. In the "old" days if you wanted to know how successful a particular jockey/trainer combo was, you researched it.
That is my conclusion. The older we get the harder it is to adjust to new ways of thinking, and I think that has as much to do with declining attendance as some other factors. When I look at a Form and realize nothing I like is going to pay more than $11, it's a lot harder to get excited. But it's in my blood and I just have to keep working at it.
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