Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Where can we find further evidence to support the "unusual" nature of this 102-77-85 running line? From what I've seen...that's how the majority of the pace-setters win their races. They throw out a quick opening fraction in order to arrest the early lead on the rail, and then they endeavor to noticeably slow down the pace during the second fraction...after which they reassert themselves again, by drawing away from their pursuers as they turn for home. In fact...this style of running has been so common on the U.S. dirt tracks, that the esteemed handicapping author Dick Mitchell even popularized the "turn time" concept...in order to isolate those races where a soft middle fraction made the horse's overall performance appear more impressive than it really was. If I remember correctly, Mitchell even created an artificial rating which combined the horse's second-call pace figure with the horse's "turn-time"...in order to further isolate those horses who had REALLY pressured themselves during the most strenuous part of the race...which was the MIDDLE part of the race...as far as Mitchell was concerned.
In any case...when 5 of the 7 horses in a nondescript statebred stakes race are able to accomplish this "accelerate-decelerate-recelerate" task...then, how "unusual" can it possibly BE?
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That race shape is in the minority of races run in North America, especially on dirt. I'm pretty confident that will prove correct. You have to keep in mind that the very nature of the quick opening quarter is already built into the figures. For example, the baseline I use for Belmont at 7f looks like this:
Code:
7.0 22.60 45.01 80.98
The raw times don't matter, it is the ratio of the fractions that is important. So in this case we are looking at a flow of fractions of 22.60, 22.40, then 35.97 (23.98 1/4 equivalent). The second quarter being faster than the first is something that is seen more often at 7f than at other distances.
I'll run a query later to see what percentage of races have the following patterns and how many are won by frontrunners.
Basically even, like 82, 81, 80
Descending, 95, 85, 80
Ascending, 70, 75, 80
The "Valley", 80, 70, 80
The "Peak", 80, 90, 80
