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As promised, here is the post-race analysis. cj was right when he said the race came up horrible. Most of the field declined in their figures at a time when young lightly raced fillies are improving. However, if one does a proper analysis
and interprets the figures in their proper context in terms of trips, ground loss and how unevenly the pace figures were laid down the race makes sense.
Fillies who ran like their PPs were forgeries included, Cartwheelin LuLu, Elegant Zig,Party Like Grandma, Maiden Beauty and Ma Meatloaf. CL, though winning, had her speed figure decline from 92 to 84 despite indications that she would improve. She had no ground loss as she went wire to wire after getting the early lead though to do show she had to run an exceptionally quick opening quarter of 102 pace figure relative to the final time in order to clear the field and get the rail. After this she ran a much slower 2nd quarter of 77. This gave the illusion of a slow pace but was no gift as she was forced to re-accelerate to 85 to keep the lead and finish the final eight in 89. the filly ran an uneven pace distribution of 102-77-85.The pattern of accelerate-decelerate-recelerate is a real energy drainer, just like go, stop and go driving gussels gas in a car. Furthermore, her final figure of 89 was demoted to 85 due to her slow half figure of 77 taken in isolation when the uneven pattern of her 1st 3 pace figures was an energy drain and deserved extra credit.
We see the same thing in Energy Zip whose pace figs of distribution pattern of 96-73-84 earned her final speed figure of 92 which was dropped from 92 in her previous race to 82
Party Like Gandma dropped from 93 to 79 with a similar pace distribution distribution pattern of 96-75-82. Maiden Beauty's drop from 90 to 79 seems to be less clear cut. Her pace pattern distribution isn't as dramatic as the others (75-65-78), Her ground loss is negligible and she was bumped around a few times but it seems it seems she bounced from the huge improvement from her previous figure of 90 from the 67 she ran in the race before. Ma Meatloaf's (97 to 73) pace pattern was also not so bad but she did lose 4 lengths on the turn. She was likely just beginning a decline from her previous big figure - possibly a bounce. In addition the last 2 fillies were well beaten, finishing next to last and last and horses so badly beaten are usually not persevered with by their riders, making their speed figures even lower.
What these results indicate is that there is a previously little known factor affecting a horses' reaction to it's pace figure that is a more sophisticated concept regarding the unevenness of its 1st 3 pace figures. Five of the seven horses in the Belmont race showed unexpected form reversals and the majority showed this unusual uneven pace pattern. Uneven pace with it's go-stop-go pattern can be especially draining even though the traditional 2nd call pace figure seems slow. If you recall in an article by Lopez in Horse Racing Nation he discuses the effect of this factor in his Travers Analysis.
Am I saying that figure makers should develop a complex new algorithm to quantify this effect. No.To begin this is something that is more difficult to quantify than ground loss or a pace figure. It's effects are more likely hard to measure quantitatively like being shuffled back or left at the gate,etc. This kind of race shape is also uncommon in North American dirt races so it's effects may not be worth the complex calculations required. However, when it does occur its use can be invaluable in explaining some puzzling race results and it can be worth glancing at the PPs for this pattern for its qualitative effect.
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