Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo
The whole issue of horses running poorer performances when they go up in class is really mostly a question of pace. Lower class races tend to be run at slower paces and when a lower class winner moves up to a higher class race he generally will be facing a faster pace, tire more quickly and run a lower figure. There is no magic component of that causes horses to lose. This whole fairy tale that a higher class horse just has to look a lower class horse in the eye and the lower class horse knows its place and losses is pure Hollywood kid stuff.
Horses do have a hierarchy but it is based on something tangible called speed. A horse beats another because it runs faster than the other horse. A horse is said to have class because it beats other horses who also have class with its speed. It all boils down to speed. Beyer explains this in one of his books. Speed is at the root of class. Speed determines the pecking order.
Yes, speed figures can be problematic since of the subjective nature of making variants and other practical problems. however rating a horse based on who beats who has the problem that horses form changes as well as pace scenarios. If horse A beats horse B and B beats C, A is supposed to beat C because it is of higher class than C. The problem with that is while it ignores some of the problems of speed figure comparisons, it has the problem of changing form and changing pace scenarios. A may have been at the top of its form cycle and had a better trip when it beat B. The situation may be reversed when it meets C. The idea that horses have a fixed class rating does not hold up. Speed and pace figures are a better way to more precisely quantify a horses current performance ability.
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Final times are a function of the ability of the horses and race dynamics.
Race dynamics includes pace (as you said), horse position, whether horses are battling/relaxed/forced to accelerate at key times, whether the horses have more speed or stamina etc... and how those things interact with how the track is playing on that specific day (more or less tiring).
Since better horses will tend to run faster in general and in form horses will run faster than out of form horses, speed handicapping is a pretty good way to isolate better horses.
But beyond the complications with speed handicapping I mentioned above, your chances of deciphering the complex mess of factors that impact the time into an accurate adjustment are someone between "you can't do it" and "you can't do it". At best you can approximate some of the extremes (using pace figures and watching races)
The result of all these complex dynamics is that sometimes a better group of horses will run slower than a cheaper one (adjusted for track speed). There's enough impact sometimes to create that kind of crossover as long as the horses are racing at similar levels.
This is party why when horses move and down in class, their figures can fluctuate (the rest being random and trainer intent). The race dynamics tend to be easier at lower class levels than higher class levels even when pace figures alone don't reveal it.
A class label is meaningless, but the classing system is relatively efficient.
Better horses tend to run at higher class levels (assuming you actually know the pecking order at your track). The tricky part for class handicappers is separating the strong fields from the weak fields at a certain level before they start coming back. That's much harder work and more difficult. That's why everyone becomes a speed/pace handicapper. You get to buy a prepackaged number that describes 85%-90% of everything that matters without any work. lol
Regarding comparison handicapping, I said "who beat who GIVEN THEIR TRIPS".
IMO, it's easier to see and measure that horse A had a tougher trip than horse B within the same race than it is to measure how much each of those trips impacted their final times.
I can easily know that horse "A" beat "B" but "B" was better that day. It's harder to adjust both their final times exactly.
