Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo
The whole issue of horses running poorer performances when they go up in class is really mostly a question of pace. Lower class races tend to be run at slower paces and when a lower class winner moves up to a higher class race he generally will be facing a faster pace, tire more quickly and run a lower figure. There is no magic component of that causes horses to lose. This whole fairy tale that a higher class horse just has to look a lower class horse in the eye and the lower class horse knows its place and losses is pure Hollywood kid stuff.
Horses do have a hierarchy but it is based on something tangible called speed. A horse beats another because it runs faster than the other horse. A horse is said to have class because it beats other horses who also have class with its speed. It all boils down to speed. Beyer explains this in one of his books. Speed is at the root of class. Speed determines the pecking order.
Yes, speed figures can be problematic since of the subjective nature of making variants and other practical problems. however rating a horse based on who beats who has the problem that horses form changes as well as pace scenarios. If horse A beats horse B and B beats C, A is supposed to beat C because it is of higher class than C. The problem with that is while it ignores some of the problems of speed figure comparisons, it has the problem of changing form and changing pace scenarios. A may have been at the top of its form cycle and had a better trip when it beat B. The situation may be reversed when it meets C. The idea that horses have a fixed class rating does not hold up. Speed and pace figures are a better way to more precisely quantify a horses current performance ability.
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I am not trying to "insult you", nor am I "casting aspersions" on your handicapping ability...but what you say here couldn't POSSIBLY be any more wrong than it already is...IMO. Every day, at every track in the land, we see horses who are raised in class to meet opposition which HASN'T run as fast -- either early OR late -- as these class risers have shown in their "cheaper" races. And, MUCH more often than not...the "cheaper" horses are unable to reproduce the lofty figures that they were able to run at the lower class level. Something prevents them from reproducing their best speed/pace figures at the higher class level...and this obstacle often has NOTHING to do with "pace". Now...I'm not a proponent of the theory that the "classier" horses scare the 'cheaper' ones by staring them in the eye, and what ultimately ends up defeating these "outclassed" horses may very well be nothing more than "trainer intention"...but "class" is a real determining factor out there...even if it exists only in the trainer's mind.
Now, look. I know that I can get a little abrasive here at times...but I don't particularly like the "polite" conversational style...where we all voice our handicapping opinions, without arguing about the possible mistakes in judgement that we all make from time to time. I like to ARGUE with people when my handicapping opinion differs from theirs...and I spend considerable time trying to explain in detail what my argument is...in order for this to become a "learning experience" for those who may not be as "experienced" in the game as some of the rest of us are. And I don't consider my arguments to be "insulting"...because I go to great lengths to avoid the harsh language that insults are made of.
I disagree with you when you say, as you did to TLG in post #6...that a horse's class rise is offset by a lofty speed and pace figure earned in a lesser race. And I explained to you why I disagree in my first paragraph here. To me..."class" cannot be offset by lofty speed/pace figures in lesser races...and my notebooks are FULL of examples that I would just LOVE to share with you. Because, as I already said...I believe that "arguments" of this type become great "learning experiences"...for ALL of us here.
And...I am not "sensitive" in the LEAST...so, you are welcomed to reply to me in any way that you choose. You can even choose NOT to reply to me at all...and my feelings would never get hurt, either way.
