Quote:
|
Originally Posted by letswastemoney
How does Revolutionary move down on a sloppy track? He just ran third in a sloppy Kentucky Derby!
|
Why you must use your own eyes to do your own handicapping. Some of these services keep spitting out information where the original information in the flow chart is wrong.
Here's a for-instance, which has continued to crack me up for the entire TC season:
WTC keeps getting "toss in slop" comments. Why? Because it was muddy for the Southwest Stakes, and he did so poorly in that race.
However, WTC was working bullets over the OP track in mud and slop, after the Rebel --- best of 10 horses 5F on the day, so obviously, he has no problem with slop
His failure in the Southwest can be attributed to a myraid of "other reasons." Slop wasn't it.
But once you attribute a false reason to a loss, and then keep running with it, it will affect your handicapping all the way down the line into the future.
Now, this will also continue to show up so you will have to reevaluate any actual off track ratings against theoreticals for him. Conversely, I am careful with a horse like Golden Soul who's numbers might show a bit elevated due to running 2nd in KY Derby, even though it's only one race.
Race reports that say "no factor" could mean 1,000 different things, you have to watch each and every race that impacts your handicapping.
Another great one is jocks, bystanders and clockers who say stuff like "wasn't even breathing hard after the race/workout"
Then you go back and watch and see that the horse was
extremely "leg weary".
(As a former runner, I can tell you there are plenty of times when your lungs can go another 5 miles but your legs are about to collapse under you. ) You do
not wager a horse like this to "go longer".
To be at all useful, information has to be placed in context, and then
evaluated for legitimacy. Use due dilligence to evaluate any and all infomation that comes your way.
