Quote:
Originally Posted by Track Collector
I think my initial response and your response both contain errors. And, it would seem to be a bit complicated given that it is a 3-way pot with 1 player all-in.
I failed to consider that Vic and the villain have a side pot, and I agree that the villains chances are 37% in that one. And although minor, I also neglected the limpers/blinds who ended up folding.
Please note that before going any further, Vic starts the hand with $70 more than the villain.
The villain's all-in call of Vic was for 425 - 67 (calling the all-in of the first player) = 358.
Against Vic in the side pot, the villain is risking 358 to win Vic's 358. (The other 67 Vic put in went to the main pot where he has an approximate chance of winning 3-way of .379 and the villain's chance is .261).
So against Vic, he needs to win 50% of the time where his estimated chances are 37%. Not Good! (In hindsight), although I imagine only a tiny microscopic number of poker players would even be able to arrive at a close approximation of their required odds of calling while while trying to do in in real time and perhaps eventually having clock called.
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you forgot to add the main pot before his call
$10 preflop, $18 +$18 + $67 shove + $45 more call + shove ($45 more call) to main pot $211
vics all-in is his effective stack $358
villain is risking his last $358 to scoop $927 if he wins all and they were figuring a flush would do it. Their odds improve if they felt $67 all-in could have done that with an A(high card,3,4), as an AA would not limped would they?
villians' equity does not justify call, but it is not terribly far off. (and $69 of that main pot was his
)
Poker is a lot like handicapping, no one is always right and everyone has their own way of 'figuring things out'.
