Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
All three of us can partner up...and we'll call ourselves the "Unholy Trinity".  |
What impresses me the most about this is PA's ability to get something working very quickly. (Bear in mind that I have no idea what he is doing and have had absolutely zero to do with his success.)
I've offered my help on many occasions to help him take it to the next level. I think I even wrote about how we use "Studies" to determine what's right and what's wrong.
Some months back I took an online course about METRICS. Boy, was it enlightening.
I've been familiar with things such as Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and dashboards, but this course taught me some very important things.
For example, one of the lessons was about what they called "vanity metrics." That's like looking at the size of your email list and saying, "See how big my email list is? I'm doing so well."
Instead, they said that you should be looking at the
daily growth of your email list.
MY point is that there are always metrics you can look at to improve your results. Again, an example is in order.
Once we get data into the "study" (which takes literally a single button click when you bet the race), we could use an option we call, "Betfair."
What this does is turn every race into a betting exchange situation. Thus, every horse is either a "take" or a "lay" bet. The system wagers the theoretical "optimum bet" either way.
In other words, when you've got a horse as a really bad bet, how would that work out for you?
Now, the naive player thinks that the only thing that matters is who he bets, and that is true once you've got a system built. But during the development process knowing whether you are playing against the right horses is likely to make a huge difference.
In PA's case, I'd suggest that he concentrate on the low-medium odds horses he is betting. Are they actually good bets? If we divide them into expected early or late, do we see a pattern?
Of the roughly 4,000 factors in the system, which factors would have pushed him off losers and/or onto winners?
The potential for improvement is just huge.
Just my opinion.
