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Old 06-16-2018, 12:03 PM   #24
Blenheim
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Home of the brave.
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The Rise of the Swifty . . .

Thanks for all the fine compliments. I’m not gonna get into the personal stuff w/ya, that’s not where I comin’ from. I’m approaching this from a handicapping and hoss racin’ perspective. I live in a state where hoss race bettin’ is still illegal, the OTB is just too far, so I didn’t bet any of the Triple Crown races.

~

It would have been nice to see Justify meet and defeat the Noble Indy challenge as it may have proved his class. Instead Baffert sent Restoring Hope to protect Justify and he ran out front uncontested, so his class remains uncertain. That’s hoss racin’, happens all the time, part of the game, I accept it.

Back to the question of class.

Class is measured by how fast the horse ran, whom the horse beat, how he or she beat the opposition particularly in the late stages of deep stretch where the true measures of class are displayed - stamina, endurance, courage, determination and late drive - true grit. Best I can tell, this horse won all of his races, less the Maryland, on the front end uncontested, won the Kentucky and the Maryland on the ease and breeze of the slop and he ran out front uncontested in the NY. In the Maryland when contested by Good Magic, in deep stretch he didn't display any of those true measures of class described above - he couldn't put the opposition away and grind em' into the dirt. If the finish was just a few more yards he loses to lowly Bravazo and Tenfold.

How do Justify’s times compare to those Triple Crown winners that came before him? From a historical perspective how fast did he run the California, the Kentucky, the Maryland and the NY? And, how would you rank Justify when compared to the previous 12 Triple Crown winners?

He is the horse of our time - late developing, lightly raced, highly talented swifty. They get out front and run as fast and as far as their talent and breeding allow. Once these swiftys get out front on the fast or sloppy they're hard to catch, particularly in the Classics because the competition isn't bred with enough stamina to overcome that speed deep stretch. If these types go easy uncontested they're hard to beat. We'll never know their true class because their greed value is found at stud.

How good was Smarty Jones? Afleet Alex? Street Sense? Big Brown? All were recent and highly distinguished three-year-olds. None defeated leading older horses. They were retired prematurely per the contemporary custom, before their genuine class could be established on the track. (Quinn)

As we begin to see the dual-qualifying classic types fade we will no doubt see more swifty types emerge to win the Classics and the Triple Crown. In so doing the value of the Triple Crown will be diluted and another nail will be sunk into the coffin of America’s first and greatest sport.
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