Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Ray2000
wiffle
I'll put this up as a new thread as it may gather some replies and I don't want to hijack LK.
(We got him posting again and don't want to upset the cart  )
For the 1st half of 2013..
After getting rid of Qualifiers, DNFs, I have 14,512 Winners of 105,340 starters who had a previous LTM (no maidens). Of these 3031 won their next start. 20.9%
For those winners who set a new (or equaled) their LTM there were 2991 starters and 653 won the next race, 21.8% Almost the same.
This is probably biased by young horses moving up the ranks so I think you're correct when considering older raceway stock who tend to bounce of the effort. The sample size gets pretty small though on older horses with new LTMs |
Boggles the mind where you come up with these numbers!!!!!! your the man!!
So basically 1 in 5 win off a LTM.......interesting.....this will be the classic example next Saturday in the haughton final......a horse off a world record/LTM and in the detention barn so this will be as true a test as you can get....
The meadowland next Saturday is the place to be and I'm not a fan of mile harness....foiled again is going for harness immortality IMO....
You know I came to this forum a few months ago thinking I had all the answers at age 32 and there isn't anything anybody can tell me that I don't already know then I run into your posts it's just takes handicapping to the next level......the data and info you have at your disposal is just awesome....
I gotta go back and read this pip thread maybe after the 364th time I'll understand it....
But seeing these horses win at a 20 percent clip after LTM is making me salivate over betting against warawee next week!!!
Thanks for the fast thread on this!!!!
9 hours till raceway Pocono balmoral and ocean I can't wait for later on!!
