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Originally Posted by barn32
If we could look at the tote board manipulations to determine profitability, this would imply there are those who know the outcome of races before they are run. Assuming these people exist we must further assume they are leaving elephant tracks across the tote.
Come on people it just doesn't work that way.
[If I owned or trained a horse I was certain would win at around 17 to one, I would make damn sure he stayed at or near 17 to one.]
Tote board manipulations are just that--the workings of the betting public as they heave to and fro trying to decide which way to go.
If there was anything to the up, down and sideways of the tote, Anderon and his brother would be rich by now, and we all know how they end up doing--five horse exacta boxes to try and get even.
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The author's book doesn't mention tote board manipulation, though it's part of the patterns on display.
I would be SHOCKED if tote board analysis (and exotic pool analysis) is not incorporated into many of the betting syndicate's methods. If they're monitoring the pools looking for overlays, it's certainly logical that they would look for wagering "patterns" as well, trying to isolate the horses bet with "smart" or inside money versus the general betting public.
This does not imply that the outcome of the race is known beforehand. Obviously, many things can happen during a race that affect the outcome, and one can only model the likelihood of those events. Nor does it imply that any one pattern is always 100 percent foolproof - like any other handicapping factor, there's a hit rate and ROI associated with each pattern.
Patterns such as early money, late money, cold on the board, reoccuring "hits" on a pool for a Z display, wagers intended solely for price manipulation, etc., are common enough that it's worthwhile to track. The key is to determine if the wagers are just the random plays from the crowd or the smart money on the hotter horses.
Out of curiousity, how would you make your 17-1 shot stay at that price? If he opened at 21-1 and you wagered enough to drive him down to 17-1, don't you think that might alert the tote watchers? What if he gets bet down to 12-1? Do you start making wagers on other horses to drive his price up?
