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Thread: Future Pool 2
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Old 02-11-2018, 03:17 PM   #8
f2tornado
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Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,617
Tough year for Pool 2 wagering. We have not seen the top two from last year. The Sam Davis did nothing to clear the air., nor did I expect it to do so. The Risen Star is next weekend but those horses tend to have limited impact in the Derby including only one winner. Gun Runner did eventually develop into an elite horse however.

Derby Winners by Prep This is out of date by a couple years.

I'll look more forward to Pool 3 when we will know the results of Fountain of Youth and San Felipe. This is the pool a person can make some bank given more insight and confidence to bet against the favorites.

The Fountain of Youth on March 3rd is what I consider the first big "impact race" of the year. Thirteen Derby winners ran in that one and it is the springboard to the high impact Florida Derby where 24 winners came out of. Further, the Derby winner out of the FL Derby tends to win the Fl Derby: Always Dreaming, Nyquist, Orb, Big Brown, Barbaro, Monarchos, Thunder Gulch, Unbridled.

The San Felipe a week later has led to 11 Derby winners. Aside from California Chrome, the winner of this race has not win the Derby since Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000. Giacomo was up for place.

Pool 4 is my favorite, albeit the payoffs tend to drop appreciably from Pool 3. Here is where you pretty much have everything but the Ark Derby to play from. The Ark Derby has had some, albeit much less, impact than Florida or Santa Anita Derby races. If a Lil E Tee or Gridstone comes out of it than I can always pound that horse Derby day.

All that said, I made a $15 Exacta box Good Magic/All Others. It would pay about 38-1 as of this post. He's pretty much locked a gate position. He could come in 5th behind four horses not listed and I still collect. People who took all others over Classic Empire in one of the pools last year collected in spite of his 4th place finish. I'm not sold on Bolt winning the thing but I suspect he will easily earn a gate. As such, I made a straight $6 All Others/Bolt ticket. That pays 42-1. It's likely there will be 10 or more horses from the All Others bucket which provides very efficient insurance come Derby day. I banked $1200 on my $13 Always Dreaming over All Others exacta from Pool 4 last year... and I'm not so sure I otherwise would have made that bet Derby day.

Last edited by f2tornado; 02-11-2018 at 03:24 PM.
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