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Originally Posted by rayfox
What is the reason the cheaper horse couldn’t compete in the better race even though he had a much faster previous race than any of the current competitors?
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Horses suprise trainers as well with a stellar performance. And at that point they'll try and run for more money, which usually brings out stronger competitors.
Usually the cheap claimer with a high speed rating gets the lead and beats the field by several lengths. Unfortunately when entered at a higher price, they have more problems getting the lead, and they have traffic problems, and are sometime force running in an unfamiliar way.
The top riders will try and control the pace with strategy. They'll sandbag and toy with the field if they've got the best horse. They might sit off the lead waiting to pass tired horses. And they play the game well by positioning the horse to hold off other horses in the lane. For example many horses won't split through the middle of horses, they've got to go around. The top jockeys have the experience and know how to suck an inexperience rider onto a dead rail or into a wedge. All of these things make speed ratings unreliable.
