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Am going against the general consensus here, but I just love runners coming off of impressive wins and stepping way up in class. Of course we must do more analysis before jumping in. Taking our 10k guy in the OP, say he caught a paceless field, set soft fractions while enroute to a wire to wire win. Today in the 20k are several that want the early lead including a couple of droppers from 25k-32k. Out he goes. But lets say that our guy was on the outside of a 3 way pace duel with early splits much swifter than par for the level, puts the other speed away, and then draws out for his fast, easy win. In today's 20k are mostly stalker/pressers, with no other need to lead types. If this horse comes back quickly he is going to be a best bet type play for me. By quickly, the sooner the better, no more than 3 weeks away, within 2 weeks better still, and, if coming back in 7 days or less the rubber band comes off of the bankroll. Rare but very good. One other thing might kill this type of play for me, and that is an older horse that in it's win posted a speed figure much faster than anything showing in the recent pp's, indicating that a regression could be next. If an 8 year old gelding's Beyer was 15 or 20 points higher than anything showing, would stay away. However, if a swift, easy winner come back quickly and passes tough scrutiny, am going to be aboard, I just love these jumpers.
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