|
You guys have given my a pretty good idea.
As described above, I don't change any of my numbers to reflect FTS. I identify the number of FTS and alter my thinking about the probability of my projections being right based on that # of FTS. I change the risk profile.
However, there's no reason I can't start calculating actual probabilities like that.
Sprint, Dirt, 8 horse field, 2 FTS - How often does one of the FTS get the lead or race within 1/2 length pressing?
Sprint, Dirt, 8 horse field, 3 FTS - How often does one of the FTS get the lead or race within 1/2 length pressing?
Sprint, Dirt, 9 horse field, 2 FTS - How often does one of the FTS get the lead or race within 1/2 length pressing?
etc...
I can create a table by Sprint/Route, Dirt/Turf, Field Size, and # of FTS to get the actual probabilities. Then I could even odds adjust it.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 01-21-2019 at 11:55 AM.
|
