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Originally Posted by Stillriledup
If you bet 2 dollars to show on a 2.10 horse, and you lose 1 out of 20, don't you break even?
If you make 10 cents twenty times, you double your two dollars and turn it into 4. If you lose one out of 20, you're back to square one. Nobody goes 20 for 20, they lose at least 1, maybe 2.
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The math on the bettor's end is easy enough. I'm not disputing that you can make a small amount of money in bridgejumping, AS A BETTOR.
But you're complaining because the *tracks* are refusing to take show wagers in some situations where massive negative break is a possibility. You appear to think that because the bettor is able to eke out a small gain over the long run, that the track is making money on the wagers, too:
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Originally Posted by Stillriledup
NOT booking short term losing bets just shows you the mentality of tracks. These tracks have a short term philosophy, that's why they can't stand the thought of lowering takeout. They know in the short term they're going to lose a few bucks, but as time wears on, they'll get all that money back and then some.
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Except that logic is so flawed as to be comical. When the heavy chalk runs off the board, the tracks make their usual cut ... on a $200,000 show pool, that's about $12,000 (6%) that's divided between the host track and the simulcast outlets, in proportion to how much was bet at each location.
But when the heavy favorite runs in the money (and bridgejumpers rejoice because they get their 5%), the host track and simulcast outlet have to fork over anywhere from $10,000 to $30,000 or more (depending on their jurisdiction, and how revenue is distributed). And don't say, "well, they just don't get their commission", because it's more than that. They have to give up the commission PLUS another $10,000 to $30,000 more out of pocket ON TOP OF it, because the state still wants their taxes, the pension fund still wants their cut, the host track still wants their signal fee, etc. AND THIS HAPPENS 19 TIMES OUT OF 20. The tracks lose money 19 times out of 20 when they allow show pools with heavy favorites, and the chalk finishes in the money.
Bridgejumping is far and away a LOSING proposition for the tracks. Any reasonable person can see that. The only value it MAY have is in public relations ... 'yes, we offer the full wagering menu, even though we're taking a bath on bridgejumpers.' But to expect the tracks to bleed money just so one or two whales can make 5% on a fat show wager, just shows that some bettors have an amazing sense of entitlement.
- InTheRiver68
