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Originally Posted by traynor
From your description it sounds like you are pretty much following the same pathway that others have taken in attempting to quantify class. I think that the most useful (and most profitable) would be to come up with a different paradigm for quantifying class that does not rely on earnings or "class/speed pars." Both those approaches have been hammered into oblivion by anyone with access to a computer.
Basically, because it is easy to affix what seem to be "meaningful numbers" to a horse and declare it a measure of class, a LOT of computer handicappers dabble around with various combinations and approaches. I don't think it is that simple (or that easy). That is not a spurious statement--I have done a number of years of very serious study of the topic, and--as a consequence--tossed most conventional approaches to quantifying class as "interesting, but not especially useful."
The reason is much like speed and pace figures--readily available to anyone with a computer. It is not rocket science to program a few simple algorithms to massage earnings, performance, and pars and call the result a measurer of "class." Again, I don't think it is that simple (or that easy).
The old saying that, "To a carpenter with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail" is equally applicable to computer users. There is a tacit belief that the best solution to every problem in horse racing is in massaging the same set of numbers downloaded every day by every other computer handicapper out there. That is rarely the case.
I think Robert Fischer is on the right track. He alludes to insights that are being used actively (and currently) by some very serious bettors. Whether those insights are of the same phenomena or not, I have no way of knowing. It may well be that the best quantification of class will be a combination of competitiveness and in-depth study of race conditions and real world class levels with earnings, performance, and pars.
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Sounds like to me that you think you already know the answer. Might be some superiority complex on your part. What didn't you understand about me being happy with my class figs?
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"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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