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[Parson]

I do very little posting and a whole lot of reading here since I became a member sometime ago. The postings on this forum and my private conversations with a couple of fellow members has improved my game quite a bit over the years. But I have to agree with Pace. There is no secret tote, will pays or anything else that these groups have access to that the rest of us do not. What they do have, as Ian pointed out, a whole bunch of people who could do very well running hedge funds in NYC, but find they enjoy this business more.
I have batched my bets for multiple tracks over the past few years. For an example, today at about 6am, I bet the 5th @ TUP. I bet a win bet on the 3 at min. odds of 3/1. I also stipulated that the bet was to be placed at 0 min. to post. Looks like my bet went through, but as the gates opened ( I am not sure when he dropped but he dropped to 2/1). There in lies the problem is the lag of the track and all other " off track money" coming into the system. It is not in real time. This would require an upgrade in technology that these tracks and ADW's are not going to make at this time. Not sure how to fix the problem other than updating things to the 21st century.
The way I have found to get around some of this when I batch my bets early like I did today, is to raise the odds that I am willing to take. So if I am willing to take 2/1 on a horse then I might set my batch bet with 0 min to post at 3/1 or even 7/2 depending on the track. Tracks such as TAM and GPX that run no where close to Marine Corp time, I might even raise it to 4/1. Now if I am betting live in front of my computer, I adjust accordingly. I may even batch all my days wagers early and send or cancel as I watch. I often do the same thing from the track if I am there for live racing. I have the ability to batch all my bets from my seat and send them as I choose when I choose.

You must also remember that there is so much information out there that all of us have available to us that we did not even 10 years ago or if we did have it, it took hours to compile it. It is much easier for all of us to see a winner now. Especially with a 6 horse fields or even 5 horse fields. Another reason why overlays are not like they use to be and another reason why I have changed to mostly turf racing ( thanks Cincy).

I would lay you odds of 1/9 that my meager wager of 10 or 20 to win ( my usual bet) or maybe I feel like a high roller and actually bet 50 or 100, do not affect the odds of the horse going to the gate, nor do any bets I might cancel before if the odds change. I choose not to play the so called bush tracks where a 100 win bet can change the odds.

I almost venture to say, NOTICE I SAY ALMOST, that even the most sophisticated wagering syndicates do not do that either, as long as you look at them as an individual bettor. This is because of all the combinations and dutch bets they do. They are paying to break even and get a rebate. Think about that. Lets assume we could get a rebate of 10%. I have no idea what they get. But if you and I get 10%. You bet 1k in 1 day and you, as it has been alluded to here, lose 30%, you have a profit of (300) then a rebate of 100. You are still down (200) or you break even and you are now up 100. Most likely it is somewhere in between. These syndicates with all the education, software, forumlas etc. know how to wage maybe as much as 5 to 10 k ( pure guess on my part) on a race so that they break even or just slightly above or below. They have bet 100k on a 10 race card and get back 1k in rebates. +or- . If I could push that much money through, and was smart enough to figure out how to do it I would. What I cannot do is afford to do that then hit a lose. How many of you could afford to lose 10 k on the 2nd today? Very few if any. These guys can do that for multiple races in a row before they hit several in a row.
But once again I think the biggest reason for the odds drop that you see is all the money that comes in from pick the site, amwager, twinspires, betfair, etc in the last 2 mins to post or in the case of GPX and TAM 5 min after post time, and because of the antiquated tech that the track uses to process. Similar to why it takes almost 5 minutes for the payouts to be shown once the race is official at some tracks.

I would be amiss if I did not say thank you to Ian. Your input was most welcome as far as I am concerned


This is something that I have loved being from Louisville my whole life. It is a game that we jokingly say Oaks day is the day we set aside to to let the kids out of school so that we can teach them to gamble, drink and smoke cigars. For me it is something that the entire family enjoys together. Most of the time my wife, my daughters and now daughters boyfriends cannot agree where to go eat or what movie to see, but we can all agree to go to the track or if we stay home, watch the races from TVG and bet on our phones.

These are just my opinions and no facts to back it up. I have never met anyone with the means and the desire to wager such as this. I know many with the means, but no desire. And I know multitudes, myself included that have the desire, but no means to wager like this. Thanks for letting me rant and if I offended anyone, I apologize. that was not my intent. I just wanted to put in my 2 cents. Once again sorry about shouting from a soapbox.

Matt