Quote:
Originally Posted by MadVindication
I understand, I think the hype is/was overrated --but it has been well-played hype and perhaps good for the sport (for a small time, anyway).
So maybe Justify wins the Belmont as slimly as the Preakness, so what? He still wins. But I don't think that there's going to be a speed duel at the belmont. And with that distance I don't think that they'll have Justify keep the lead at all costs. They're more likely to have a handshake with the owners/trainers of whatever horse is most competition to settle for second than risk a speed duel running and have either of them end up like Good Magic.
Magnum Moon had the criticism that he tending to go wide down the stretch. The only thing people can find with Justify is that he isn't as good as "other champions."
Of course, odds and horses running depending, I will bet against but only because I'm a gambler, I don't have to spend much, and not with any expectations that I'm building winning tickets. Sure, I believe that fresh horses will be a risk to take the race and it makes sense to bet with some trends.
Someone on here said that as long as Bravazo has four legs Lukas will run him. As long as Bravazo has four legs I will bet him  "Gotta be in it to win it" is true. |
TBH I don't think a TC will really make any difference for the sport. We just had one. Made no difference. American Pharoah was kicked to the curb by Arrogate-mania like he was a big hunk of horse manure stuck on everybody's shoe. All that did was say the TC ain't as big as one big ass Timeform rating and race call announcing the reincarnation of Man O'War.
I have to amit, the schadenfreude from that whole episode was pretty sweet.
TC or not, Justify will be gone by next Feb at the latest. These annual popularity contests are what is killing the sport. If you say, "meh," as opposed to letting yourself be manipulated by breeders into their marketing campaigns you are sneered at, because that is what this all is, a marketing campaign. Do you really think Bob Baffert really doesn't know that both Silver Charm and Real Quiet ran the Preakness a second faster than Justify, or that all of his Preakness winners but one ran it faster than Justify, when he says he's never had a horse run it as fast as Justify did?
You know the race that made me the happiest this week, the one that really is good for the sport? Soi Phet's win. Give me a 10 year old vet still cashing checks over some blink and he's gone, now horse, 3yo messiah.
I have no doubt there will be a script for the Belmont, a gentleman's handshake as you say. I'm pretty sure that there was for the Preakness, except Good Magic was supposed to get 2nd, not 4th. Why this doesn't bother you, I don't understand.
Bravazo has been the mystery for me, he's the only horse I really, really got wrong.
My knock against both Magnum Moon and Justify are the same, I am not convinced they are exceptionally fast horses, but MM kept winning, until he didn't. And Justify has kept winning. Win streaks in any sport are hard. So I always tip a hat to them.
