Quote:
Originally Posted by papillon
The horse was on fumes. His tank was empty. He looked terrible after the race. Smith repeatedly said the horse was tired. He didn't back pedal and change his story until later.
If the horse wasn't Justify, "almost beaten" wouldn't be a controversial criticism. It doesn't matter if you know where the finish line is, you still have to get there, and with another 2 lengths, he almost certainly wouldn't have.
He wasn't Affirmed battling Alydar or Sunday Silence battling Easy Goer down the stretch. He was battling a horse running against his preferred style, a horse likely uncomfortable from the get go, who still only lost by a length despite that fact.
He is a horse that has on three tracks now in three states run over a 1:36 mile, and has been physically exhausted at the end of every race. In these three races, the closer he's gotten to 1:36, the more exhausted he's gotten. He isn't even displaying the engery distribution of a top miler.
He's winning. He deserves praise for that just as did Magnum Moon. But I saw the horse I've thought he was all along yesterday, which is a good, honest horse. The results yesterday, give credence to those who view the Derby as a race with umpteen caveats. Yesterday, gives credence to those who said beating Bolt O'Oro was perhaps not the best measure of greatness.
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I understand, I think the hype is/was overrated --but it has been well-played hype and perhaps good for the sport (for a small time, anyway).
So maybe Justify wins the Belmont as slimly as the Preakness, so what? He still wins. But I don't think that there's going to be a speed duel at the belmont. And with that distance I don't think that they'll have Justify keep the lead at all costs. They're more likely to have a handshake with the owners/trainers of whatever horse is most competition to settle for second than risk a speed duel running and have either of them end up like Good Magic.
Magnum Moon had the criticism that he tending to go wide down the stretch. The only thing people can find with Justify is that he isn't as good as "other champions."
Of course, odds and horses running depending, I will bet against but only because I'm a gambler, I don't have to spend much, and not with any expectations that I'm building winning tickets. Sure, I believe that fresh horses will be a risk to take the race and it makes sense to bet with some trends.
Someone on here said that as long as Bravazo has four legs Lukas will run him. As long as Bravazo has four legs I will bet him
"Gotta be in it to win it" is true.
