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Agree that Surf Cat has no chance here
Too bad - he's got a bright future ahead.
I see plenty of early speed in the race which should set it up for those coming from off the pace. Island Fashion, Lava Man, Congrats, Surf Cat will be on or near the front early. Let's see if CNak guns Island Fashion out of the gate to take the early lead down the stretch the first time and to try to keep PVal down on the rail and to save ground in the turn.
The two closers which should benefit from the too-fast early fractions are Choctaw Nation and Perfect Drift (inside-outside). It's going to depend upon some racing luck for both of these since they'll be weaving through traffic coming into the top of the lane. Two horses that interest me for exactas are Borrego (12 ML) and Super Frolic (30 ML). Borrego should get a middling trip with the ability to be right there when the running really counts but I don't see him being able to close better than the 2 or 12. Super Frolic also has a good turn of foot middle and late but will be too far back for me to consider on the win-end. Super Frolic could benefit by getting KDes as the replacement rider. Either the 3 or 6 could pick up a piece of the purse.
DJofSD
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