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[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I focus most on last race, but I don't think there's a hard fast formula for what works best all the time like last race, best of last 2, best of last 3, average of last 2, last representative race based on today's condition etc...

I think a horse's last 3-4 races probably account for 90% of everything you need to know (exceptions might be back turf, slop, and other exceptions) but how to weight them depends on a bunch of factors like how lightly raced the horse is, is he improving, go backwards, or relatively stable, how certain you are a specific race can be thrown out due to conditions/trip, trainer changes, etc...

I'd guess "on average" I put about 50% of the weight on a horse's last race and 25%, 15%, 10% on the next 3.

What that basically says is that if 2 horses are similar off the last race, the one with better overall record is more likely to win. If one is a little better off the last race but the other is better overall, they are similar etc..

If the horse runs an uncharacteristically lackluster race last out, and you find no valid excuse for it...does this last race still account for 50% of your opinion on the horse? Or do you look at the horse's sharp PRIOR races...and skew the percentages in favor of the overall record?