Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
It's riskier to say that a particular horse will win its next race than it is to say that the horse will lose...simply because it stands to lose the vast majority of the time. This alone should make us more confident of our negative form indicators...IMO. In my own handicapping...a strong negative factor will often be enough of a reason, all by itself, to cause me to eliminate a particular horse from win-bet consideration. But I can't think of a single "positive" factor which will, by itself, cause me to place a win-bet on a horse. Selecting the potential winner is a more complicated affair than just crossing off a potential loser.
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Very astute. What specifically do you consider a Strong Neg Factor? I am constantly learning which ones(negative factors), are the automatic tosses. Over the weekend, I'd zeroed in on a nice 23-1 longshot for a win bet, and one of my tosses closed in the stretch to win by a head. Since I'm primarily a Win and exacta bettor, I didn't have him coupled with the 16-1 toss horse. My over-confidence in the three horses with whom he was coupled for exactas did not give me the $20.40 place price to salvage the situation.
