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Thread: S&P top?
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Old 12-04-2017, 03:23 PM   #5
lamboguy
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
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Bond yields are not signaling a recession. I understand the urge to find a reason to hate a market that has gone up for 8 years but I think you’ll see better earnings and possibly even some more p/e expansion over the next 4 quarters.

I’m not a trader but you might see a short term drop when tax reform is signed (selling the news). But otherwise I’ll wait for an inverted yield curve before I get worried. It could come next year if the Fed keeps raising short term rates. But historically the market has run up for quite a while even after the curve inverts.
the yield curve has been flattening, the 30 year is only 40 basis points more than the 10 year now. in the past that has signaled a recession is on the horizon. today i don't know what it means, because there is no such thing as conventional wisdom in the markets now.
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