Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
No one laughs at a $3.60 show payoff. What the critics of the Dr. Z system REALLY say is..."How can we make meaningful pool size-driven calculations when so much of the mutuel pool money gets wagered during the last seconds of the betting period?" But if you use the system only for the super-elite races a few times a year...then I guess this issue can be sidestepped somewhat.
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I seem to recall Dr. Z writing in this book or one of his other books that he is does not claim you can make a living from his system. The system is mathematically sound as far as I can tell. I have used it to turn a profit on place and show wagering. It's harder now than it used to be.
I remember going to a KY Derby back around 1994 (Sea Hero?) and there were absolutely no lines at the betting windows at 5 minutes to post. Everyone was getting set to watch the race. There was hardly any late money. You could bet with 5 minutes before the start and the pools would barely change. That all went away when companies like Youbet, Brisbet, and others came online on the internet. The money poured in at the last minute. It was hard to know what the final odds would be at the smaller tracks. The larger tracks were a little better.
Now, the late money removes any inefficiencies from the place and show pools.
However, if you get a rebate and factor that in along with some good handicapping, you can still find value in the place and show pools.
The book is written to help people understand market inefficiencies. Even back in 1984 the Dr. Z system did not work at all times at every track.
To this day it is classic book filled with terrific information. If you haven't read it you can learn a lot about racing markets and how to exploit them. This was never an easy game to beat.
