Quote:
Originally Posted by The Artful Dodger
Does anyone know of a rule-of-thumb for determining how to best size a trifecta bet based on pool size? Any books or articles discussing this subject? I would like to bet as much as a $50 trifecta (per combination) but I'm not sure how to best gauge whether $5, $10 or $20 would be more appropriate and under which circumstances (with respect to the pool size).
Has anybody already done the math?
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If I can dig them up, I have some excel spreadsheets that do the math calculations. Anyone wanting them can send me their e-mail via private messaging.
To do the calculations, one will need the following:
(a) Your average $1 winning trifecta payout(b) The average trifecta pool size at the track(s) under consideration
(c) The trifecta takeout rate at the track(s) under consideration
(d) The size of your trifecta wager unit size
Somewhere at least up through 2017 I also have (b) above, and for (c) one can find the HANA track rating report which shows each track's current trifecta takeout rate, or one can just use an estimate for all tracks like 24%.
As to (2) above, IMO there is kind of a balance point that is determined with both subjective and mathematical aspects. The mathematics can tell you the optimum unit wager size that will make you the most TOTAL money, but that study/analysis neglects the risk of how real and consistent one's ROI is. In the past I have built a scenario table can help someone if they have interest in this.
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