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Old 10-13-2021, 07:34 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by cj View Post
I hear what you are saying, but Rockemporor won in a canter, hard to argue he wasn't value. Blowout was as clear as lone speed as you will ever see on paper and still went off at 5-1.

A few years ago Chad's horses had a lot more name recognition, and most likely more talent, than the group he currently has as a whole. A lot of those races were unbettable and frankly I wouldn't want to run my horse against some of those either.

But there is a reason his horse's have seemed to be slipping through the cracks lately and it isn't because he isn't a great trainer. I've found a lot of value in his runners the past several months, not just horses that won at prices but were underlaid. (And no, Rockemporor wasn't one of them )
I'm not saying his horse are never overlays.

I don't want to redboard the entire race, but I understood most of the betting in the Joe Hirsch except for Arklow. I thought he was overbet (doesn't mean I was right even though he didn't run well). Ironically, maybe that was some extra "Cox" money???

I keyed Channel Maker despite not being sure if he was the same horse he used to be. I thought he was coming out of race with some quality speed that kind of collapsed and moving into a race where he might control the pace. So I took a shot with him and used him with a few horses including the Chads . I left out Arklow as the reason for going exotic also.

Rock Emperor is one example of the kind of horse I've been talking about. He had some back races I liked a lot, but I didn't think he was running as well lately. If he was trained by Joe Average there would be an X% chance he would run back to a peak. Trained by Chad Brown I'm not sure what the chances were, but I'm sure they were higher than "X%".

Serve the King was an example of another type. IMO, he didn't look good enough to win on paper, but he was a Chad Brown horse and still lightly raced. So imo the chances he would hit a new peak were much higher than if Joe Average was training him.

You have to build that into your odds line.

For me it's very tricky to quantify the impact the trainer has on the chances of a horse jumping back to its A race or hitting a new peak because it's situational, it's hard to accumulate data on it, and it varies over time. Yet people understand this and tend to bet certain trainers horses heavier. So it's twice as tricky.

Anyone that keyed them was smarter than me. I was scared of both, but especially Serve the King because I didn't know what he could do yet.
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