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Old 10-01-2021, 10:46 AM   #1
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
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Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,322
BETTING ALL NON-FAVORITE HORSES IN THE FIELD.

BETTING ALL NON-FAVORITE HORSES IN THE FIELD.

THE BET SIZE FOR ALL THE NON-FAVORITES IS DETERMINED BY THE RELATIONS SHIP OF ALL-NON-FAVORITES TO THE FAVORITE.

THE ATTACHED REPRESENTS THE WORK FOR ALL 8 RACES AT CHURCHILL DOWNS RACETRACK FOR YESTERDAY, 09-30-2021

THE TOTAL BET (COL W) = $913
TOTAL RETURNED (COL W)= $1210
THE FAVORITES WON ONLY 2 RACES
BASED ON THEY FAVORITES FAIR WIN % (COL AA) THEY SHOULD HAVE WON 2.56 RACES .
SO THEY WON BUT 78% OF THE EXPECTED WINS
MY $1 RETURN WAS $1210/ $913 = $1.32 ON THE DOLLAR

IF THE FAV WON ALL 2.56 RACES MY $1 RETURN WOULD BE $1.31
BUT THE WON ONLY 78% OF THE RACES, SO MY LONG TERM $1 WIN RETURN WOULD BE $1.32 X 0.78 = $1.029

Pretty, pretty good, if it held up.
My win bet sizes are based on the expected normalized win % for each non favorite compared to its actual normalized win %

Attached Images
File Type: png bet all non favorites in an single race.PNG (48.2 KB, 55 views)
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Last edited by formula_2002; 10-01-2021 at 10:48 AM.
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