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Latest post bias
End of the year and I'm updating my program tables. some might be interested in this.
2008 Post bias expressed as percent difference from expected number of wins for each post
Similar to Trackmaster Post bias numbers for last 30 days. (Some tracks are missing, couldn't find their data)
Data used was from Track web site, which usually gives Winning percentage for each post.
For example, Balmoral track gives Post 4... Starts..1955, Wins... 241 or (12.3%), but it's more helpful to know if this number is above or below the expected. In this case it is the expected number. Post 5 however shows 19% more wins than expected by chance alone. (Numbers for outside posts have too few starts to mean anything)
Track (Races) Post...........1....2......3.....4....5.....6..... .7....8....9...10...11...12
Balmoral Races 1955..........8%...12%....1%....0%...19%....6%..-24%..-33%..-20%.-111%
Buffalo Races 1015..........41%...25%...11%...11%...7%...-58%.-163%.-276%
Calx Races 1664..............6%...-1%...-3%..-12%...31%...-1%..-26%..-52%..-45%..-17%
Dover Races 1900............28%...12%...13%...26%...12%..-45%..-69%.-150%..-20%...14%
Flamboro Races 2296.........46%...26%...16%...17%...-5%..-75%.-181%.-252%..-22%
Frasier Races 1167..........27%...23%...18%...14%....1%..-73%..-97%.-143%....7%
Georgian Races 835..........38%...31%...22%....7%...12%..-43%..-86%.-202%.-125%..-99%
Grand River Races 732.......46%...27%...20%....2%....1%..-80%..-192%-222%....4%
Harrington Races 1694.......41%...23%....6%....4%....6%..-41%..-86%.-146%
Hawthorne Races 230.........11%..-17%..-17%...11%...11%...20%...10%..-81%....9%..-47%
Hoosier Park Races 882.....-13%...13%...-4%...34%...25%..-16%..-22%..-35%..-47%..-19%...54%...78%
Indiana Races 1024..........24%...15%...-6%...18%....6%..-28%..-46%..-14%..-31%....9%.-102%...25%
Maywood Races 1055..........35%...30%...23%....6%...-1%..-66%.-105%.-158%...-1%
Mohawk Races 1335...........-2%..-23%...-4%...-2%...36%...34%...-9%..-48%..-44%..-90%
Northfield Races 2569.......31%...32%...10%...15%....8%..-54%..-87%.-209%..-18%
Northland Races 234.........11%...24%....6%...11%...24%..-33%.-100%.-201%..-21%
Ocean Races 376.............18%...-8%....5%...17%...25%..-30%.-111%.-187%...15%
Pocono Races 1346...........14%...13%....8%...13%...17%...-4%..-55%..-60%..-57%
Pompano Races 1622..........-7%...11%....9%...23%...30%...-6%..-75%..-75%.-140%
Saratoga Races 2034.........32%...20%....8%...22%...10%..-36%.-124%.-139%
Scioto Races 705............14%....8%..-15%...37%...14%..-10%..-43%..-54%.-109%..-14%
The Big M Races 1437.........8%....6%...-3%...-4%...18%...10%...-9%...-5%..-39%..-43%...14%
Tioga Races 522.............17%...10%....5%...17%...21%..-12%..-30%..-58%.-146%
Vernon Races 875.............6%....1%....5%....9%...23%...-4%..-13%..-31%.-163%
Western Fair Races 482......36%...10%...25%...-3%..-31%..-61%.-106%...-2%
Windsor Races 1052...........0%...10%...15%...22%...25%...-8%..-55%..-97%.-173%
Woodbine Races 505.........-32%..-13%....6%....6%...36%...36%...-8%..-49%..-62%.-204%
Yonkers Old data............42%...28%...15%...24%...11%..-34%..-56%..-59%...-1%
The Meadows Old data........34%...10%...11%...31%...47%..-21%..-33%..-53%..-62%...11%
Drawing the rail at Flamboro is almost a walk-over  522 wins this year
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.The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.
Bret Harte
Last edited by Ray2000; 12-17-2008 at 10:38 AM.
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