Originally Posted by Teach
I believe the Kansas City Chiefs will win Super Bowl LV. They have, to put it succinctly, “too many weapons.”
The last I saw the Chiefs were -3; the over/under was 56.5.
Let me assert my firm belief that the game will go “over.”
The long-range, 10-days-out-weather-forecast calls for high temps at Tampa’s “Ray-Jay,” Raymond James Stadium, on Sunday, February 7 to be in the mid 70’s (possibly lower by game-time: 6:30 p.m.). Nonetheless, there will be a fast track.
In their regular-season meeting in Week 12, the Chiefs won: 27-24. The score was not indicative of the one-sidedness of the game. The Chiefs jumped out to a 17-0 first-quarter lead; they never looked back. They shredded the Bucs’ defense (now much-improved). At the half, the score was: Chiefs 20, Tampa Bay 7. The Buccaneers scored 14 unanswered fourth-quarter points to make things look closer than they appeared on the scoreboard.
Yes, Tom Brady has a mystique. He lives for moments like these (his 10th Super Bowl appearance). He knows that this may be his “last hurrah.” What better way than to go out a winner and, in the process, get his 7th Super Bowl ring. Yet the Andy Reid-coached Chiefs may have something to say about Brady’s hopes and aspirations.
The Bucs do have the home-field advantage (no travel; no acclimation). The Chiefs, according to reports, will arrive late – two days before the Super Bowl (Covid-19 protocols). Moreover, only two teams in league history have made it to Super Bowls playing in their home regions — the 49ers at Stanford Stadium in Super Bowl 19 and the Rams at the Rose Bowl in Super Bowl 14 — but neither was at their home stadiums. The Bucs, who play at Roland James during the regular season and now in the Super Bowl, is a first.
The ongoing pandemic adds a wrinkle to any potential home-field advantage for the Bucs: Only 22,000 fans will be present. That’s roughly 30% of the stadium’s capacity. The league will gift roughly 7,500 tickets to healthcare workers, which means only about 14,500 are available to purchase. I believe more corporate types will be there than die-hard fans. I wonder, as an aside, what tickets will be going for as game-time approaches.
Moreover, psychological studies do indicate that sports teams that are playing in their home stadia (home-field advantage) do gain an edge. It’s a case of familiarity (the “pirate ship” and the primarily Bucs crowd, albeit limited). How much that will help the Bucs is hard to say (The Bucs were just 5-3 at home this year). However, one thing’s for sure; it won’t hurt.
It’s just that the Chiefs, particularly on offense, have “too many weapons,” e.g., Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, etc. You can’t just stop one player; you have to stop several. That will be a tall task for the Buccaneers’ defense.
If I’m the Bucs defense, I’ve got to stop both Hill and Kelce. Double-cover? I doubt Patrick Mahomes will do much running. Scamble, yes. But running… A recent mild concussion (pinched nerve) plus turf-toe will likely lessen that probability. I don’t figure Mahomes to take many chances.
Further, Todd Bowles, the Bucs defense coordinator, may be thinking, “Let’s emphasize pass defense and see if Edwards-Helaire et al. can beat us on the ground.”
For the Chiefs, when on defense, they must pressure Tom Brady. He sometimes “wears his emotions on his sleeve.” He is prone to throwing interceptions. The Chiefs defensive coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo, might just throw in a few “blitzes” or change up his defensive schemes to keep Brady off-balance.
It boils down to “cat-and-mouse” and adjustments.
In the end, I believe that despite the home-field advantage the Chiefs are too strong.
An added dimension is that the Chiefs are the “defending Super Bowl champs.” “Been there; done that!” Last year they defeated San Francisco, 31-20. The last time the Bucs were in the Super Bowl, 2003, they defeated Oakland, 48-21. Maybe, with the exception of Brady, most of the Bucs’ players were in elementary school.
Again, I believe the Chiefs cover and that both teams will combine to go “over.” In the end, the Chiefs just have “too many weapons.” Good Luck!
|
