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Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
I think Nyquist has a good chance of winning...but I think he may go off at 3-1.
I can get 3-1 on a horse anytime with much less competition. So from a wagering aspect betting Nyquist just to win seems like a bad bet to me.
His value comes in assuming he IS going to win, then singling him on top in the horizontals and verticals...Betting on who is going to run 2nd is real important here because THAT might unlock the vertical exotics bonanzas....
Assume Nyquist wins, then assume Exaggerator, or Gun Runner, or Creator for 2nd and then fill in and box the underside of the ticket with likely candidates....Then on another ticket, the same cold 1-2, but with boxcar longshots boxed for third and fourth...that's how some of my tickets will look like.
But you are right, I won't know exactly till racing day what the cold 1-2 will be...
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If you like Nyquist on top of exotics, do you winder how he will start the race? Like, will he try to wire the field? Will he stalk the pace? I know if Danzig Candy gets out & runs the same splits as in SA derby, Nyquist will burn up. Or will Nyquist fall back like his Juvenile race.
This derby is difficult in trying to figure out what some horses will do like Nyquist. We know what the closers will do, not a secret because they have only one way of running, but Nyquist has several.
