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Originally Posted by ronsmac
Other than the obvious 19 or 20 horse field, with the elimination of the no chance sprinters who used to run every year and screw the pace up. The Derby seems much closer to a normal race than it has in decades. This is after the fact but the last 2 winners probably qualified as low priced overlays. Especially California Chrome who layed over the field in nearly every way. No sophisticated handicapping was needed. There's no dominant horse this year in my opinion but there are about 8 or 9 deep closers who look like automatic tosses on top.
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Even if you toss 8 or 9 closers, you now have a 12 horse field to deal with. In other words, you casually, based on style alone, eliminated a little over 40% of the field, and you still have to deal with a 12 horse field, and that's just on the win end. Then how do you fill out your ticket, unless you are looking to take a win bet on a race that usually has enormous payoffs for the exotics. While I agree that not having no chance sprinters means that the pace can be more reasonable, you have Palace Malice going crazy on the front end, with the possibility that Danzig Candy does the same thing.
