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Its sort of like any other race. But some people almost make things too hard. There's such a thing as "thinking too much." I see people over analyzing all the time. There's only a few outcomes, the race goes to form and you play the logical players......or there is a traffic snafu and all bets are thrown out the window, as in a pace meltdown or an incident.
The other thing I focus on which gets lost in the shuffle every big day is the undercard. Burnsy sees dollar signs in the big races other than the "big feature". I've been posting enough picks on here, its not a fluke that I do well on the big days. The feature is usually the "fluff"......not always, but most times. There's usually big numbers to be had logically playing the under card stakes. Statistical "over bets" and over lays are bountiful with the pool size.
Here's where its like "every other race". Along some of what glengarry said. You can't be on some horse months or even weeks in advance and expect to have a good play. You may get lucky and hit or maybe the chalk will win but its absurd to be "all in" on someone in advance. There's the weather, the defections (injuries, fever), the draw. Who in their right minds picks a race (other than this one) way in advance? Its fools gold. Like I said, it may be your lucky day, but that's not sound handicapping IMO. Yes, its like any other race....you try to know every variable before you pull the trigger. At least have that "advantage" in your corner.
Common sense.....101. Too simple for smart people too get.
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