Quote:
|
Originally Posted by rubicon55
Gus, regarding ignoring a horses last race out what would you say if that last race was that particular horses new top speed rating. I have not been able to verify via databsae but some texts suggest a top figure last time or worse yet a double top figure (2 races in a row) is a formula for a "bounce" due to maximum efforts being exerted, soley based on that horses race history. Bounce theory may be just old school imaginations by others but some think it is a real factor for consideration, not the only factor. In this case would you still ignore the last race? Throw out as a non-contender or maybe a repeater?
|
To me, the bounce theory is real...and I have refined it somewhat to fit my own beliefs on the topic.
I expect a horse to bounce if his top effort last race was accompanied by a top PACE figure as well as a top speed figure. Otherwise, a horse would have to have back-to-back top efforts before I would consider it a bounce candidate. I have found that the most likely horse to bounce is the one whose last two speed figures are the highest ones in its body...and whose most recent speed figure is lower than the one that preceded it.
