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Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Was just now at Cohail's site (it's still up)......somehow googled my way to it. I liked his take on what's worthwhile in handicapping--and what's useless. I believe the author has since passed, but his site is well-worth the read.
He wasn't afraid to go against the grain of modern handicapping:
"The following aspects are borderline worthless:
Speed Numbers: I once believed in speed numbers, but wisdom comes with age, and I now wonder how anyone can believe a manipulated number is somehow more accurate than the actual time of a race is beyond my grasp.
Track Variants: Impossible to determine with any degree of accuracy.
Beyer Speed Figures: The worst hoax ever perpetuated upon the race-going public.
Par times: The dynamics of every race are different, and profiles based on average times for a given distance are highly flawed. They have no bearing on what will happen in the race under scrutiny.
Class: An elusive element. Worrying about which horse is the “class” in a race is daunting, time consuming, and mostly a waist of time.
Post Position: The post position a horse will break from has little, if any, influence on the outcome of the race.
Jockey: A competent trainer will employ a competent jockey. Issue closed.
Weight: Probably the most overemphasized factor in horse racing.
Track Condition: Another factor that gets far more attention than it deserves."
https://amgona.wordpress.com/2013/09...pping-aspects/
I googled his book for a review, and it brought me to this older thread.
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Originally Posted by ultracapper
I believe Nitro would be more in agreement with this post than not. Many ways to skin a cat. Many ways indeed.
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It's not a question of agreeing or disagreeing with any of the items mentioned (above), because a true tote analysis measures intentions based on the overall well being and condition of the horse (or horses). Nothing you will find in any traditional handicapping methodology will provide that information. That’s because all that printed information is based on the PAST. Anything derived from it is
pure unadulterated subjective conjecture!
I don’t go against the grain of modern handicapping: I
completely IGNORE it!
Every post/comment on this thread related to using the tote board is really a ridiculously over-simplification. Probably because no one realizes that the analysis I use goes well beyond looking at just the odds (which is simply a reflection of the Win pool ONLY!)
Listen, you guys. Believe what you want.
I don’t look for Winners. I look for Winning plays!
When ANY of you can duplicate post selections like this let me know:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...&page=10&pp=15
Post #138
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...&page=11&pp=15
Post #156 & #162
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...&page=12&pp=15
Post #171
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...5&page=3&pp=15
Post #35 & #38
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...5&page=4&pp=15
Post #58
You can still pat each other on the back and all agree to besmirch a method that is obviously beyond your grasp. But just because the majority of players can’t do it, doesn’t mean it can’t be done.
As my tote mentor always reminds me, “You can’t argue with ignorance”. So I’ll leave it at that, and let those doubters and cynics continue to struggle trying to make ends meet.
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