Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo
I think what you mean to say is that if they have natural speed they can run fast more efficiently and NOT use up a lot of energy in doing so, which I would agree with. This holds true on any surface.
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That's not exactly what I am saying, but it's close.
I am saying that since horses have varying amounts of natural speed even when they have similar overall ability, running faster early will have different impacts on them.
However, I am also saying that if a horse with a lot more natural speed than his competitors uses "some" of it to open up a bigger advantage over them turning for home, it can improve his chances of winning unless he overdid it. If a horse is running well within himself, the extra length he opens up from running a 1/5 faster early can be worth more than the extra energy he used doing it.
Your theory implies that using that extra energy to open up an extra length would hurt his chances.
I also think that having extra natural speed and using it is way more valuable on dirt than turf because all the horses are tired at the end of dirt races. It's tougher to close down a horse that's in front of you when you are already tired, even if you are a little less tired than him.
