Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro
Four trainers – Steve Asmussen, Bob Baffert, Chad Brown and Brad Cox – have combined to win 41% of the 83 Grade 1 races run in North America so far this year, a marked increase in the success rate for racing's elite “super trainers” from just a decade ago.
Asmussen and Cox have won nine G1 races each this year, with Baffert and Brown just one behind. Throw in Todd Pletcher's six G1 wins and fully 40 of 83 (48%) of the sport's most important races have been won this year by horses from one of five stables.
Going back a decade to 2011, the dominance was not as severe. When that racing year ended, Bob Baffert led all trainers with 11 G1 wins, but the trainer with the next highest number was Dale Romans, with six, followed by Todd Pletcher, H. Graham Motion and William Mott, with five apiece.
The combined 32 G1 races won by those five trainers accounted for 28% of the 116 G1 stakes run by the end of 2011.
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ROFL... yeah, right...
mention nothing of the fact that the number of trainers who participated in graded stakes in 2011 was 36% higher than in (the last full year of) 2020.
Then allow for the ebb and flow of the individual stock of two or three of those guys, and allow for smaller field sizes in 202(0/1), and it is statistically insignificant.
(in 2011 some random stakes has 10 entered, and Pletcher's lone charge has X% chance of winning)
(in 2021 the same stakes has 6 entered, including a second one of Pletchers because it gives him more of an edge in numbers, while perhaps helping to assure an honest pace, and the mere difference caused by more random potential outcomes ending with Pletcher on top combines with the obvious stuff above to make this a non-issue)
