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[traynor]

I have a major problem buying into the correlations of "class" and "speed." It is easy, convenient, and doesn't require much thought or effort to average a bunch of races and declare that because "better horses run faster" one can easily categorize the "class" of a horse by fitting it into a pigeonhole on a par chart. It may have made Quirin's algorithms to generate "par times" for various "classes" of races simpler, or Beyer's "projected speed" figures easier to handle, but I am highly skeptical that the massaging of various speed and pace numbers generates anything useful in the area of "class."

I have no comment to make on BRIS pars (or anyone else's) because I don't use them. I tried everything available some years ago, decided the logic used in creating them was seriously deficient, and the only solution (for me, and for my own wagering) was to create my own class level charts based on "other criteria."

A primary consideration in that endeavor was(is) an in-depth analysis of race conditions at a given track, in particular the ability of a horse in good form to perform competitively in "adjacent" class levels. Speed and pace figures were completely ignored in the determinations. I don't do stuff like this to keep an idle mind busy. I do it because it is profitable.

So the question is, what process do you personally use to determine if a given horse is going up in class, down in class, or is entered at essentially the same class level as in the immediately preceding races? And--once that determination has been made (if in fact it is made), what do you do with it?