Quote:
Originally Posted by burnsy
It’s somewhere in between . It’s not totally guesswork . But almost like weather predictions. They can easily mean absolutely nothing at times. That’s reality. The problem with sticking to one formula or trying to “live” off of it. You’re just limiting your ability and potential. There are “judgment” calls you have to be willing to make . I actually had someone on here tell me it’s ridiculous to judge or use an educated guess at the pace of a race. I asked how they did it ? They look at the final number and that’s their opinion. Great ! Good luck with that ! The converse is also true. Sometimes a horse runs a really fast pace …… never comes eye to eye with a competitor and runs the field off their feet by open lengths. That leads to all this talk about raising the number . Everyone is prone to bias, I try to limit it as much as possible. Sometimes I get the impression that some of these handicappers and figure makers get caught up in “fandom “ and don’t really realize it . The true test for this horse will be tomorrow. If he runs off, you’ll know for sure he’s that good .
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Sure, but that's really my point. Since the best performances almost by definition don't have a database of comparators from which to generate sound statistical conclusions, it really doesn't matter what the speed figure charts say. You did not need Andy Beyer, at all, to figure out that Secretariat ran out of his skull in the Belmont, and at the end of the day Beyer's system wasn't designed to measure and cannot accurately measure performances like that.
A completely innumerate, sight handicapper can accurately tell you how good Flightline's performances have been this year. There's really no reason to worry about a number that is effectively a guess says- all you need to do is look.
