Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Some of the calculations on how much the public loses can be misleading.
We’ve all seen those charts where the very short priced favorites lose less than the track take, the 30-1 horses and higher lose way more than the take (and everything in between).
The problem with them is that they often average each category at the bottom and get a number that’s much higher than the take. That’s not the correct math. Way more money is bet on the short priced horses that either outperform the take or approximate it than the long shots. If you did a weighted average you’d get the right number.
I’ll make up some numbers to illustrate the point.
Let’s say short priced favorites lose 14% and huge long shots lose 30%. The average is 22% (much higher than the take), but more money is bet on the favorites. So if you did a weighted average it would approximate the track take plus breakage.
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Ocrunks post stated that the public roi after takeout (not teams) was .72 over 10 years data in doubles for instance. That has only one meaning. For every million dollars they bet collectively they lost 28 percent and received back $720,000. There is no other way to interpret his post. Since tlg did not state otherwise I take it as fact.
What you have posted has nothing to do with this subject.
