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Let's take a fresh approach to this discussion regarding the Win Pool at 16% and the Pick-4 Pool at 24%. Before starting, I acknowledge that 16% < 24% making a single $2.00 Win bet less "costly" than a Pick-4 bet as a single bet, however I would contend that this is not the right comparison to be making.
Suppose we consider any Pick-4 where we invest $2.00 in a Pick-4 coupling four individual horses and $2.00 in a single Win ticket on the first of those four horses. Our cost of these wagers implies that we have $1.52 of post-rake money in the Pick-4 pool and $1.68 post-rake money in the Win pool.
We hit the first leg. Now, we are alive to the next Pick-4 leg however would need to rebet in the next Win pool to continue that thread of activity.
Let's say I make a new $2.00 win bet in Leg 2. Now, I will be paying another $0.32 in rake while paying no more to the Pick-4 pool. Clearly after four legs, I would have paid the same $0.48 in rake to the Pick-4 pool however I would have paid $1.28 to play in the Win pools.
A counter-argument might be that you can take money off the table during the four race Win pool that you cannot do with the equity built in the Pick-4 pool. Fair observation - hedge your Pick-4 equity if that is a concern.
However, one cannot deny that more active cash plays during the Pick-4 pool sequence than a four race Win pool sequence.
Last edited by ScottJ; 10-28-2022 at 10:50 AM.
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