Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
Theoretically that's the beauty of the pari-mutual system, while handle minus takeout is returned to players, the "average" player will lose more than takeout. This is all part of the reason that if you are, in face, above average, your advantage increases with every additional slot you play in exotics, be they verticals or horizontals. It's just common sense.
Ask yourself how much of a win pool a 2:1 favorite comprises. What percentage, then, of the exacta pool? The trifecta pool? The Super pool?
It's a good discussion in general. Thanks for the numbers.
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Everyone here understands why you like exotics. Most here are putting most of their money in exotics. But your presentation for "why" is wrong and encourages wrong thinking.
The addition of extra slots has no impact on the take and the parlay price has almost nothing to do with whether you got good value in your horizontals bets.
What exotics do is open the door to MULTIPLE errors within the same race or race sequence that allow you to more than overcome the larger take.
Error + Error often has greater value than the higher take as in my examples above.
When you understand that much about the math, you will also start creating better tickets because you'll be thinking more clearly about the values, where the EV+ combinations are likely located, and can pull out all the garbage combos most people add in now. Talk about number of slots/take and parlays encourages wrong thinking, especially for weaker players that are going to get buried.
