Quote:
Originally Posted by MJC922
The way I was dealing with it when I was using time comes down to what are the average internal fractions for a specific final time, distance and surface. When you have that, now working backward which fractions exceeded that baseline and to what degree did they exceed it. Once you have those inputs you can study the impact on the final time. If you want to argue that the impact on a group of bucketed 6f in 110-111 is invalid, it comes down to the individual anyway that's ok, I don't entirely disagree there will be individual variation but what I'm saying is this is about as close as we can get to bringing hard data to the table. The impact will surely be different for different distances and surfaces.
Now back waaay up because it also implies that you have taken care to correct for wind conditions first which the average segments and their differences from 'par' for the final times will point out to you. So if we have an entire card of horses running two fifths faster on average during the backstretch segment of the race then we know the wind variant for the segment is two fifths (tailwind conditions), with the wind variant(s) applied at this point you can start looking at energy distribution for the individual horses. Now that the fractions been corrected for the wind what are the average fractions for this horse's final time, not the race winner, not the race fractions, looking strictly at the horse's own times you can then recalculate the horse's expected final time given a more optimum energy distribution. This isn't going to be perfect no matter what, there will always be headstrong runaway free-running horses that never really do or can ration their speed but I think at the end of the day if your accuracy improves the final estimates it's worth the trade-off, you'll just have to be wary of free running horses OR identify them somehow if they consistently distribute their energy improperly then you'll have to make an exemption for this subset of horses.
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Actually , I start in the opposite direction...
1ST Fraction...
Determine this from the front runners(s)
Then see who can compete....
Remembering Jim Bradshaw.....
