Sidebar

[pandy]

The stats that Jeff showed here are in line with other similar charts I've seen. Yes, it's true, that lower odds horses have higher ROI's than higher odds horses...if you are betting all of them.

So, yeah, if you bet every horse that goes off between the odds of 1-9 and 5-2 and every horse that goes off between the odds of 3-1 to 20-1, you'll have both a higher win percentage and a higher return on the lower odds bets.

However, that doesn't mean that the lower odds range bets are better bets because no one bets on every horse in a particular odds range.

I've run hundreds of tests on various different handicapping methods and I've found that it's profoundly easier (and more likely) to show a flat bet profit on win bets if you're not betting any favorites at all. In fact, I think you could make a good case that you should never bet any horse that's under 6-1 odds.

Of course, the ROI also goes up if you don't bet to win but use the key horses in a few exactas or other kinds of exotic wagers.

So when it comes to longshots, try this...

Pick two odds ranges, one with favorites one with longshots... for favorites, say 4-5 to 5-1....for longshots from 6-1 to 30-1. Let's say that you only bet horses in these two odds ranges, but, you use sound handicapping logic to pick those horses. That's a good way to see how you are at picking winners in lower or higher odds ranges. I think that most handicappers will find that they will have a higher ROI in the 6-1 to 30-1 range, simply because there are more overlays in that range, and, you have more leverage. There's no room for error when betting favorites. Many horses that appear to be legitimate favorites lose because they simply didn't run well that day, or they got a rough trip, or the pace went against them. There's simply not enough room for error.